The Popcorn’s Ready for the Main Event
We’ve reached an important point for equities, bonds, real estate, food prices, energy costs, just about anything we come into contact with, and the greatest of all asset classes, the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar is so strong right now compared with other fiat currencies that you have to go back to 2001 to see another time when it was so sought-after.
There are many similarities between the two times, including:
- A stock market mega-crash that ended a tech-centered bubble
- A major geopolitical event (war over Ukraine, 9/11)
- Meaningful cultural changes
- An innovation acceleration
- Radical workplace changes
- Demographic revolutions
- And more
There are also many things that are not the same whatsoever.
Today, the types of jobs that multinationals can outsource are depleting for low-income earners.
Many of the professions that could have been moved to cheaper labor pools have already done so. In order to continue to improve and cut costs, higher-level jobs have been computerized, automated, robotized, or have been taught by foreign universities, so even high-income earners are now at risk of seeing their professions outsourced.
It’s one hell of a paradox in which America is so rich and developed that the country can own so much wealth but do very little of the actual work and productivity, thus it’s focusing only on creating the most cutting-edge businesses and letting others manage them while retaining the ownership.
I watched Dave Chappelle, a comedian that is famous for writing jokes that are intentionally thought-provoking but also politically incorrect.
He was poking fun at Donald Trump, who wanted to bring back coal mining. In response, he essentially said that if they are digging for anything, let them dig for truffles since that’s the type of thing we need in this country.
This is similar to the famous quote by a French princess that said “let them eat cake” when the commoners protested that they were out of bread.
We all know that what is true of America as a nation doesn’t apply to individuals living within it on a case-by-case basis.
While the country is abundantly wealthy, more than half of the country is either living paycheck-to-paycheck or has no savings to speak of.
Hundreds of millions do not have retirement nest eggs, the financial education needed to build it, or a clear path to get there one day.
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What’s my point?
What drove silver to have an incredible 2009-2011 rally? It was the fact that it was partly artificial, just as it was in March 2020. In 2008, silver’s price fell from $21/ounce to $9, so the surge to $49/ounce felt special, but it was because it started from the depths of the abyss.
In March 2020, the same thing happened. The price plummeted, so the rebound was impressive and drew a crowd, but the real bull market in silver from 2001 to 2008, when silver boringly went up by hundreds of percent, wasn’t picked up by retail investors.
I think we are going to see something similar in the coming years where silver quietly rises but it’s nothing that draws media attention or retail frenzy, just a steady incline towards $50, where all the fun begins.
Silver, don’t let us down, old sport.
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