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Powell is Completely Blind
to the Leading Indicators

On July 1st, 2005, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke was interviewed, and here is one Q&A that will live in infamy:

INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if, in fact, we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

We all know what happened NEXT!

When I think of Jerome Powell’s latest interview with David Rubinstein, which can be seen here in full, Powell has clearly built a narrative in his mind that we have a labor shortage and a very strong and robust service sector.

Looking at data doesn’t help navigate the treacherous waters of a future recession because the information is always about the past… what we care about are the LEADING INDICATORS, and they point to a recession in 90 days!

There are three critical components of the economy that predict recessions, broadly speaking, and they look terrible right now!

The first among them is the yield curve inversion:

Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

The inversion of the yield between the 2-year Treasury bond and the 10-year one is of immense importance. If you’ve ever heard about yield inversion but haven’t delved deep, here’s what it means:

When lending funds to another, be it an individual, an entity (corporation or institution), or a government, the consensus is that the future is uncertain, so the interest rate the lender should expect should grow with the duration of the loan.

As I write this, the 30-year Treasury rate is 3.83% while the 10-year one is 3.74% and the 1-month one yields 4.66%.

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    If someone asks me for a 30-day loan, the interest I would ask for is normally FAR LOWER than if they want my money until 2053.

    This inversion means that lenders expect turmoil and plenty of uncertainty in the short term and want to be compensated appropriately for the risk they are taking.

    Courtesy: Zerohedge.com

    As you can see, this scenario has led to wealth flowing to bonds for income. The rich are parking their funds in short-term bonds while waiting for the recession and getting paid handsomely for it.

    The Federal Reserve continues to think the economy is robust and strong because of the low unemployment that isn’t consistent with a slowdown, but the three major industries that indicate we are running towards a recession in 90 days (housing, auto sales/appliances/durable goods, and office/business equipment) scream that Powell is thinking like Bernanke did.

    In the next 90 days we think it will become clear that a hard landing is coming!

    Best Regards,
    FutureMoneyTrends.com

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