Tomorrow is D-Day
Some days are more significant than others. If you remember November 2020, America’s population was torn between two camps. It was bloody, vicious, and to the wire.
Both sides did everything they could up to the seconds the ballots closed (and perhaps even after, as many believe) to secure victory.
Once the voting stops, the result is basically in (in a normal unrigged election), and all that is left is to count the votes.
Both sides prepare for the announcement, and the day of the official results is monumental.
It is a day that decides the future of the country, so it’s quite important.
Tomorrow, December 15th, is such a day, not for political reasons, but economic ones. The FED will be revealing much about its plans to taper and tighten in 2022, and that’s as meaningful for global markets and asset classes as anything governments do.
It is just extremely important.
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As we head into it, the S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high for the 68th time in 2021, only surpassed by its performance in 1995. It has gained 25% this year (are you invested?) and has managed to compound at 23%/annum for the past three years, even after a 20% drop in December 2018 and a 35% massacre in March 2020.
It is more than remarkable and shows the true greatness of holding the index throughout your adult life, through thick and thin, selling only when the money is needed for living expenses, but otherwise leaving it alone to grow over decades.
In the history of the S&P 500, there have only been nine other times when the index managed to close a calendar year up by double-digits three years in a row. 2022 has probabilities that look 50/50, according to history. In other cases, the index gained in five of the previous nine times, so 2022 could prove to be a down year!
With the possibility the indices underperform and with the assurance that the FED finally acknowledges inflation in the economy, gold could stage the mother of all comebacks in 2022.
If we want to see signs of this, tomorrow is the best day for it.
I also think that it is really encouraging to see retail investors buying the dip heavily despite the media scaredemic, which proves that the public is not afraid of reopenings.
How should we think of inflation in 2022?
- The consumer is going to have to bite the bullet – life will get more expensive.
- Companies’ branding power will help them pass costs to the end consumers.
- The end of this inflationary boom will be celebrated by the markets.
- Gold and silver could prove to be huge winners because there’s so much cash on the sidelines right now, and with indices at all-time highs, some funds will rotate to metals.
Tomorrow, we will know everything we need about what the markets think.
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