It’s Just too Painful
I’m hearing that people are taking their money out of stocks and want nothing to do with them any longer. The pain and the pessimism that’s out there are enormous.
I’ve had friends calling me to ask what I’m doing and even the best real estate fund managers are giving me a ring to raise capital, because I think that even they are having trouble locking investors’ money up, in this environment.
We barely had to chance to breathe after the world saw its worst healthcare crisis in over a century and now we have a war on European soil, a reality that not many believed they’ll ever see in their lifetimes again.
You can see how sentiment and positioning are nearing some of their lowest ever and this is even before the S&P 500 has even entered a bear market. Even after all of this, the S&P 500 is only down 14% from its all-time high and the Dow Jones is only down 12%.
Things could get much worse, yet sentiment is already horrible:
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
What happened yesterday with nickel prices shows the global economy that concentrating the world’s supply of any commodity in one region, jurisdiction or country is a risky bet.
Countries are learning not to trust each other and to form new alliances, instead of outdated ones.
Culturally, some are gravitating towards the west, while others are pledging allegiance to China and are moving away from Western influence.
In the big picture, we are seeing a new set of relationships forming and we are also witnessing the first great sanctions on a modern country, to this extent.
These types of volatile overnight spikes in the price of nickel show that the underbelly of the global supply chain is still really fragile and that lack of cooperation is still a major deterring factor:
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If you trade with the mindset that every dollar you’re now investing into the traditional indices and traditional sectors could spend the next two years in a sideways, downtrend or just a slowly climbing market, you’re being realistic.
There are too many things that make these current affairs too concerning to ignore.
Secondly, after over a decade of a bull market, it’s okay to see 12-24 months of a bear market and that is what is happening.
Personally, we believe that the consumer, the jobs market and the re-opening of the global economy is too strong to be offset, even by these surging oil prices, so we believe the FED will want to raise rates on March 15th in order to signal that even Russia’s invasion isn’t enough to sidestep the U.S. economy from its recovery.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Nevertheless, if we are entering a recession, here are pointers to keep in mind:
- You most pressing need to keep your active income steady; your career or business will determine the household’s strength more than your investment portfolio.
If you’re retired, consider part-time work to take the pressure off your investment portfolio.
- Be more aggressive with buying the HIGH-QUALITY companies that get cheap only in bear markets and you’ll regret not buying later on.
Gold $2,000 is fun, by the way.
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