It’s Becoming Clear Cuts Aren’t Coming
Again, everyone was wrong.
Predictions of recession proved themselves to be too bleak.
Forecasts of the regional banking crisis turning into a new 2008 or 1929 were disgustingly overblown.
Fear and paranoia that the housing freeze is the birth of another meltdown are yet to materialize, and the only thing that keeps showing resilience is the consumer, who has spending power since he is EMPLOYED.
We’re just not seeing any proof that inflation is dropping like a hammer, and there is more complexity to solving the inflation burst than originally perceived, since the global order is falling apart.
In the hyper-globalization era of 1991-2020, things got super-cheap and inflation completely went off the radar, in terms of a societal problem.
Today, nothing is on autopilot… businesses and corporations don’t know if they’ll wake up tomorrow and China changes their practices or if Russia shuts their oil supply to Europe or if the Saudis start working with China or if Chile nationalizes lithium or if UK inflation goes up again.
Things aren’t orderly from the perspective of fiscal policy, and it means the central banks can’t trust the leaderless governments to manage their financial books the right way.
Therefore, central banks can’t and won’t ease their interest rate policies for a while.
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The trauma of getting it wrong in the 1970s is a big part of the DNA of central bankers, and they’d rather make sure the job is done before eventually cutting.
Once the markets fully come to terms with this, the stage will be set, but that is only now setting in.
Much more will be needed to give the Federal Reserve the confidence to cut.
The current bond market forecast is that in July, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5.25%, which will end up being the last one.
But, as opposed to ALL commentary to the contrary, they are NOT projected to cut.
That’s the shocker that gold is dealing with, and the new consensus is that at the end of 2023, rates will still be over 5.00%!
The markets, therefore, aren’t forecasting a recession any longer.
Gold is now facing the following headwinds:
- No recession
- No cuts
- Diminishing inflation
- Higher rates
This environment doesn’t support higher gold prices and that means we are entering a correction period.
Will it last one month, a quarter or several months?
There’s no way of knowing, but gold could suffer in the interim.
The only piece of the puzzle that could tilt the balance in gold’s favor is if the housing crisis does morph into some sort of meaningful slowdown.
I personally wouldn’t count on that.
To me, the next few months will be all about housing and how America’s largest industry grapples with a world of high mortgage rates.
When it comes to gold, today’s economic conditions resemble nothing we’ve ever seen.
Interest rates are high, gold’s price is high, and there’s no letting up on the employment front.
Truly, this is not a classical scenario… this is a full-blown reset and the chips have not settled yet.
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