Say Good-Bye to the Paper Gold Market
and U.S. Dollar
All dominant world currencies lose their stature and eventually come to an end. It doesn’t happen overnight, but there are telltale signs when you’re witnessing the final innings and the end is near. I believe the dollar is headed to oblivion before the decade ends.
Central banks around the world have been trying to move away from the U.S. dollar for a while now, though the wheels of destruction were actually set in motion in the early 1970s.
Due to a flood of redemption requests coming in from Europe in 1971, President Nixon effectively closed the gold window by severing the connection between the dollar and gold, which did the trick of ending redemptions altogether but also had long-term consequences.
The most evident example would be the destruction of the dollar’s value over the years. It didn’t happen all at once, but once the government was free to print money endlessly, inflation took a toll, and the wealth gap widened.
Basel III might destroy the paper gold market and restore physical gold’s rightful place as the real and proper store of enduring value. However, the final nail in the coffin will be the collapse of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, accelerated not just by inflation but by stagflation.
The signs are impossible to miss. Stagflation, or a stagnant economy coupled with fiat-money devaluation, is strongly evident in 2021.
At the same time, the drooping dollar is a primary support of the “too big to fail” financial markets. Unbelievably, the S&P 500 climbed roughly 14.3% during the first six months of 2021, thereby marking its second-best first-half performance since 1998.
That market performance isn’t based on firm business fundamentals or a prosperous middle class.
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Instead, it’s based on equities’ relative strength to the dollar and other fiat currencies, which are being printed into oblivion.
It’s gotten to the point that we have to ask whether the dollar can continue to serve as money – as an actual store of wealth and value. While the U.S. dollar loses its stature among global currencies, it’s appropriate to look to hard assets as the real form of money.
All the signs of stagflation are right in front of our eyes: inventories and production falling (above, you can see the Chicago PMI confirming the second biggest drop since 2015); consumer prices rising quickly; and employment growth slowing.
Fiat currencies won’t go away overnight, as they’re still highly liquid, they’re fungible, and they’re entrenched in the global monetary system.
But this doesn’t mean that the dollar will dominate forever or that paper gold contracts will be respected indefinitely.
As central banks ramp up their purchases of physical gold today, individual investors will either increase their own gold holdings today because they want to or later on because they have to.
For over 5,000 years, gold has served as the most effective insurance against government malfeasance, elitist central bank inflationary schemes, and devastating stagflation. In hard times, hard assets are held fully and confidently. As gold is tangible, it is unassailable.
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