98 Years Old and Still Dishing Out Advice
It’s been 50 years since Kissinger roamed the halls of the White House and concocted deals with world leaders, both sinister and revolutionary, but the one thing he has remained is controversial.
Now, with China nearing a population peak in 2025, about 12 years after its working-class population already peaked in 2010, and with its household debt levels through the roof, it must either make its move on Taiwan or risk seeing its power wane since American superiority is back on the table for the 21st century due to far healthier demographic trends.
The symbolic occupation of Taiwan is what the PRC, headed by the CCP, projects to the world. They want Taiwan because they see it as a renegade island-state that always belonged to the “one China” vision.
We all know that symbols aside, the real reason China wants to conquer Taiwan is because of its crown jewel, the intellectual and tangible assets of TSMC and its fabrication plants of the world’s most advanced chips, those that are smaller than 10 nanometers and now even 5 nanometers.
You might be scratching your head wondering how TSMC, a company founded by one man in 1987, Morris Chang, could go from nothing to being such a strategic institution, one that American tech giants and the American government can’t compete with.
Think of it this way: Washington’s recently passed Chips Act has given the green light to spend $52B on chips, and the administration has convinced Samsung to build a $15B plant in TX, Intel to build a $20B plant in OH, and TSMC itself to build a $12B plant in AZ.
It looks good until you learn that TSMC alone is investing $100B on R&D towards becoming the first and only manufacturer of 3-nanometer chips, and the plant will only be in Taiwan.
Mark my words: no American company will be able to compete with TSMC even 30 years from now, so we better befriend them and protect them like Coca-Cola protects its formula.
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If you’re worried the Chinese will invade Taiwan to gain the upper hand and full control of TSMC’s fabrication plants, know that the heroism of the Ukrainian people has deterred any government from thinking about taking military action against another neighbor.
It’s estimated that you’d need 600k troops to win a war against Taiwan, but that was before Ukrainians proved that huge pools of civilians will enlist to defend their country from foreign occupation.
China will probably choose to take over one of the RoC’s (Republic of China) smaller islands and use them as bargaining chips for Taiwan if they choose to gamble on the jackpot.
2022 really seems to be a year of sobering up and moving into a new paradigm.
Sometimes you meet people who tell you that they decided to quit their career in high-tech to pursue their yachting hobby and gave up everything they had in their career to start a new one. Yes, some are willing to lose everything they worked for in order to achieve their new passion or a rekindled one.
The markets seem to be willing to lose a lot for the sake of their obsession with panicking over inflation, growth, higher rates, de-globalization, and global geopolitical fears as if the companies can’t adapt to the changes and thrive in the coming decade.
Easy money is gone, but well-earned money is alive and well.
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