Pfizer Gets the Green Light
The FDA has approved Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine, and the market celebrated this by releasing steam and surging upwards, along with gold. To the market, changing the label of the vaccine from “Emergency Use Authorization” to the official approval status is a major de-risking event, but not for the reasons most think.
The significance of it is scary, and I want to lay out how I see it because the world just changed.
In the short term, this is exactly what the market wanted, a big slice of meaty safety and assurance that was not the case in recent months. Yesterday was a breathe of fresh air to Wall Street that this disease is now no longer a pandemic, but more like another health issue we have to live with.
This FDA approval helps pave the way forward and open up the economy.
There are still many around the globe that are suspicious, wary, and skeptical about getting the shot, about the intentions of governments, about the efficacy and safety of it, about the potential negative side effects, and questions of rights over one’s body, but today’s announcement puts them at a great disadvantage whether they like or not and whether they feel like the facts are on their side or not.
Approving a vaccine on the federal level is the stamp of bureaucracy that allows the government to crank up its efforts to “incentivize” those that are still not immune to get the jab.
By incentivize, I mean making their lives more difficult and putting pressure on them to make the choice they avoided thus far.
I believe that many who are either in financial hardship or have children will compromise on their core principles and get the vaccine.
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My point is not to tell you what I think of this matter myself, since it’s an emotionally-charged topic, but to interpret what will likely occur within the stock market.
First off, this FDA approval will give more freedom to businesses to only hire those who have been vaccinated or have built enough antibodies the natural way. Employers will feel safer refusing to hire from the standpoint of insurance, liability, and lawsuits.
Next, pressure will be placed upon the largest unvaccinated group: minors.
The drama of this political theatre will reach a climax, as parents will draw the line, but I’m sure that you’ll be surprised by the number of people who will be giving the shot to their children.
What’s almost guaranteed is that no government in its right mind will order further curfews, lockdowns, or stay-at-home orders!
Travel will likely remain the worst regulated industry, and going abroad is going to require more documents than before, but the most important thing that I think is likely to come of this are new medications (not vaccines) to treat COVID-19.
This is very bullish, in my opinion, since many more people are open to treatments that are deemed speculative and have been known to cause side effects.
The biggest issue with Pfizer’s mRNA shots is that the company has not found a way to calibrate them properly. Their effectiveness is short-lived and the boosters are too frequent. Some believe that this is done on purpose since it is a cash-flow cow and the end result is that most people have a limit as to how many they’ll take, but that’s not the same with pills.
Medicine is far less invasive in the minds of most people, and companies that will be able to approve theirs will see huge success.
Yesterday’s announcement was a major event for the stock market and a surprise, so I expect the rally to last a while.
The world changed again yesterday.
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