What I’m about to share with you is critical and might even cause you to fall of a bicycle.
When Biden was last asked about a recession, he replied that the most qualified economists he listens to don’t think we’re in one, which tells me that Washington is working from the base-case that our economy is doing just fine.
This means that when GDP data is released for Q2, in late September and a recession is fully acknowledged by the media, the press and the country, Washington will shift gears altogether.
We think that September 30th, the release date of the Q2 GDP data, will be a major turning point for markets, because with the official data out in the air, many will alter their behavior, both on an individual level and on the corporate and institutional stages, setting the stage for the recovery.
Like in many other things, admitting that there’s a problem is 50% of the way towards the solution.
Shocking to many, we believe that once the recession is made public, with two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, the markets might actually begin their rally and bottom out.
What we’re going through is the most intensive valuation reset in over 22 years.
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You can see how the Atlanta Federal Reserve branch is already pricing a recession and Wall Street is doing the same.
In 2008, we did not experience a valuation reset; 2008 was a real crisis of structural failure of the banking sector and the first real housing crisis in American history.
What we’re seeing today is the end of an era is technology-driven economic deflation and globalization. Instead of these, we are entering a lengthy new cycle, decades-long in duration of de-globalization.
The wall on the border with Mexico, the invasion of Ukraine, the Hong Kong riot, following China’s conquest, the Taiwanese threat and the retreat of American forces from Iraq and from Afghanistan, all signal the peak of America’s role as a policeman of the world and de-globalization is not only a limiting economic and financial environment, but an historical disaster, from a military standpoint.
During the last de-globalization period of 1910-1950, we saw the formation of the Federal Reserve (1913), followed by WW1 (1914-1918), The Great Depression (1929-1932), WW2 (1939-1945) and the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan.
During the globalization cycle of 1860-1910, we saw the advent of cars, airplanes and electricity, among other things.
De-globalization inspires more conflicts and nationalism.
This concerns us, because most of us have taken globalization, as a given, since it has been with us, since 1950.
After the inflationary recession ends in 2-3 quarters, an inflationary expansion will begin and this is what will serve as the starting gun for a dollar bear market and a silver bull market.
We need great leaders in both China and the U.S., because trade and the dependency of these superpowers on each other is the most stabilizing factor for world peace.
The markets will bottom by September 30th, in out view. Once they do, we believe that the NASDAQ 100 will be slow to recover and the S&P 500 will outperform it.
Both, though, in our view, will offer lower returns than previously achieved in the decade of the 2010s and the better returns will be offered by individual stock picks.
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