No One Is Talking About This
I just hope you’re ready. 2024 will be a very unique year, for a wide array of reasons. Just like 2010, 2011 and 2016, it is a year in which I expect to see some of the best and most outstanding performances from gold equities.
Making predictions is pretty dumb, I know… many have seen their entire portfolio splintered into a thousand pieces (to quote JFK regarding his intentions for the CIA), when attempting to construct a portfolio that aims to bet on future events.
That’s not my intent and I never practice that ideology.
Instead, I conceptualize probabilities and then create a framework, if the trend that I believe to be correct shows promise.
I’ll give you an example; in October 2022, as the QQQ hit 265, I believed that this was the bottom for the NASDAQ bear market, with a top-to-bottom move of -33%, so I bought TQQQ, a triple-leveraged ETF.
As the trend confirmed itself and no material changes were present, I increased my holdings, as opposed to the conventional wisdom of taking some off the table.
When the trend is healthy, it’s time to squeeze every drop out of it…
Now, if the initial trend is weak or doesn’t pan out, I’m out. I don’t worry about it, don’t beat myself over the head with it, don’t spend a second thinking about it, because somewhere else, there’s a real trend that I’m missing.
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Right now, as you can see, Wall Street is back to buying equities, after an eighteen-month abstinence.
As you can see, each time that Wall Street comes back to overweight, such as in 2010, 2016 and 2020, gold stocks rally big.
What’s more, no one believes this bull market has legs. The media is tracing the source of this latest surge we’ve been seeing on buybacks and on short position covering.
I think they’re wrong… we’ve been through a pandemic and then de-globalization shocks and inflationary shocks… war broke out between Russia and a neighboring country, and between a terrorist organization and Israel – and to top all this off, China and the United States nearly saw war break out over a balloon.
What’s exceptionally important about 2024 is that it is the biggest-ever election year in history.
The level of uncertainty during the year and the immense certainty at the end of it, when a U.S. candidate will become president or remain in office, is unbelievable.
More than 2 billion people will be voting next year, including Taiwan (critical contention point between China and America), Indonesia (largest Muslim country), Russia (most threatening force in Europe), India (greatest powerhouse in the middle of the China/U.S. war), United Kingdom (birthplace of modern imperialism), European Union (largest economic force in the world) and the United States (greatest military might and largest economy).
In 2010, the gold stocks rallied for nearly two years. In 2016, it was an eight-month stretch. In 2020, it was six months.
We have no way of knowing how long this one will last, but my view of it is that once the FED cuts in May or June, it will be glorious.
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