It’s Not a Pretty Sight

After Yellen and Powell reassured the nation many times that the economy is strong, the banking system is resilient, and liquidity levels don’t show contagion, you’d think someone would bother emailing their staff this TERRIFYING CHART:


Do you have a word to describe it? It looks like utter chaos.

Some banks are still upside down on billions of long-duration bond holdings.

The risk of more bank runs is still out there unless the FED and the Treasury keep monitoring this closely.

Many bankers allowed their asset managers to speculate that the FED is bluffing about how hawkish they are and that they are exposed if rates stay high and withdrawals suddenly spike.

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    I’m not predicting more bank runs, but I do think that we should be prepared for the FED to completely pivot by July.

    The odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, which was unheard of just a month ago, is nearly a shoo-in.


    The system is cashed up in money market accounts like never before, and once the FED begins to cut rates, this storm of cash will start to return to assets and real-world spending, which is why I keep saying we live in an inflationary period no matter how much they try to contain it.

    It is not normal for cash levels to be this elevated, but I think that it will require much lower valuations to attract Baby Boomers back during their retirement to invest in equities.

    Therefore, we believe gold is doing well right now and will continue higher after this water break that it is taking at around $1,960/ounce, possibly reaching $2,300 during this calendar year.


    Americans didn’t accept the voting machines, and then the Brazilians didn’t. Next, the French stopped collecting garbage in the streets in protest of Macron looking to raise the age of pensions from 62 to 64. Now, Israel, the seeming island of prosperity in the chaos of the Middle East, is on the verge of its biggest domestic conflict since 1973.

    If you haven’t heard, the country is dealing with a crisis of a lack of trust in the motives that actuate Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister.

    Some accuse him of reforming the justice system because he is actually dealing with open cases against him and standing trial as he leads the nation while creating a conflict of interest at the same time.

    Others state that the reforms mess with the checks and balances on the judicial system and would politicize it.

    The big picture is that an estimated 30% of the country can’t stand him anymore, and that’s a real problem because Netanyahu is regarded as extremely popular with 30%-40% of the other demographics.

    The reason I bring it up is that when Israel showed signs of weakness on previous occasions, its enemies (Iran being the primary one today, along with Lebanon and Hamas) could leverage the distress and wage a regional war.

    Democracies are in crisis mode.

    Best Regards,

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