What is Going On?
This isn’t normal for me. I wouldn’t usually presume to think that my analysis could be right when it stands against everything I’m seeing in the charts, but I must say that while I don’t think the charts are wrong (they can’t be by definition), the conclusions drawn from them are.
You might be asking yourself if so many people could be wrong to think another 2008 is upon us while analyzing the world and believing that a major recession is coming now.
The answer is YES.
Before I try to prove that we think an inflationary boom is coming next, not a deflationary bust, I want to really persuade you that the charts aren’t the issue here but rather the sincere people that interpret them incorrectly.
It wasn’t even four years ago that mathematicians and modelers, along with world leaders, told us the greatest biological threat in 100 years was upon us and that the global economy would have to shut down for three years.
The amount of misinformation regarding the most discussed and researched topic of our lifetimes can be overwhelming, yet we can all agree that some still believe there was never a virus while others still think the virus is the biggest threat to humans!
People can and will believe in all sorts of things no matter the facts, and they are often too ashamed to admit their fallacies.
You’ll notice that the chart below also screams confusion:
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
So that you can understand why this chart is important, the last part shows the only time it was like this was in 2001 right before the markets bottomed out at their lowest points (they’ve never returned to their 2001 levels).
This is why I am talking about an inflationary boom… in times of high inflation and low unemployment, stocks can rally thanks to their nominal values.
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Stocks might keep up with the high inflation by being hedges, and this can be observed in many instances in the 20th century.
To this day, I can remember the period of 2011 when I heard certain gurus and experts tell the public that hyperinflation was next while others claimed the worst deflationary spiral since the 1929 crash was next.
None were right, and both looked at the very same charts.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
My outlook is predicated on certain facts that I hear and see, the most critical of which is that many indicators continue to improve while others deteriorate. The overarching notion is that with the amount of currency printing and stimulus bills in the economy, the U.S. will continue to experience many inflationary pressures while attempting to deglobalize its supply chains.
All of this is happening while the labor pool is shrinking.
This is an inflationary boom, and I think that once the FED stops raising rates, we’ll see inflation rise again.
Let’s keep our eyes on silver and the dollar. Here are the key points:
· Silver at $29.50 will tell us the dollar bear market is real.
· The DXY index at under $92.00 will confirm a multi-year bear market.
The odds are increasing by the day.
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