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Wow, should we have someone reply back to all the doubters who have been emailing us over the past two years saying that we’re too optimistic about gold’s prospects? “They’ll take it down” or “it’s manipulated” and “gold isn’t going to $2,000/oz… I’ve been hearing that for ages, and it will never happen.”
I don’t know if we should because things could change on a dime, but for now, it’s certainly looking good for gold.
What drives gold’s price? Why was there a sudden change that drove the dollar to plummet in the past week that led gold to close the week just below $2,000 after already trading above that level?
Gold flourishes when real rates are trending near negative, the economy is slowing down, and it’s really cashed up.
The reason is that when these conditions are met, the next phase is a mild/severe recession and easier lending requirements to get small businesses back on their feet and get the housing sector going, but the uncertainty of it all puts a lid on stocks, which works well for gold!
You can see it best in the plummeting yields of Treasury bonds. The markets have, in real-world terms, judged that between now and June, the impact of the tightening is all coming down on us.
When you have a war in Europe, borderline hyperinflation, and 2008-style panic in the markets coupled with a quarter of the nation looking to retire, cash is king.
The Boomers will continue to prefer bonds and cash over stocks to fund their retirement, and this means the FED must CUT rates. If it doesn’t, cash will dry up and spending will slow.
Let’s not debate over this; the FED is going to cut rates by June or July:
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I’m going to show you a number of signals that, contrary to most opinions out there, tell me that if the bottom for stocks isn’t in yet then we have one more short-lived sell-off that may not even test the bottom but just formally announce that the bear market is over.
Companies have definitely shifted away from relying on growth with no regard for the bottom line.
Balance sheets are cleaner.
Employee counts are better.
Efficiencies have been made.
If panic comes, we’ll deal with it.
Keep my model PORTFOLIO in front of you and study it.
Think for yourself if this type of bearishness is warranted.
If you think today’s economy is riskier than in 2008, stay out.
If you don’t, think about how you felt after other major sell-offs when everything screamed FEAR, valuations came down, the FED realized conditions were tight enough to U-turn, and the rally began even though reality didn’t seem to fit the bullishness.
In the next three months, the recession fears will intensify and the whole economy will move from pricing in a recession to pricing in the recovery.
Gold will benefit from this, and we’re already seeing the rally get underway.
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