It’s Been Fun

In the past week, even the optimists are turning bearish.

It’s hard to find a bull out there…

Net flows into global equity funds were negative for a second week in a row and it has been the largest since Q1 2020.

It’s hard to find a reason to be bullish when all people see is inflation and war.

The grim ripper of it all is housing, which is unanimously agreed to be in a bubble, which makes me doubt that it is.

 But, if there’s one sector that is deeply concerning, it is just that… housing.

Ultimately, if there’s one giant overhanging cloud, which will be the deciding factor, it will be how the public reacts to soaring mortgage rates and when these peak and either reverse or stay relatively stable.

Looking at the comparisons between 2008 and 2002, it certainly seems ominous, but while April 2022 has been a horrible month and this year has been a calamitous one, where’s the smoking gun?


In 2000, in the bubble, the NASDAQ was an exotic index, comprised of companies that have NO REVENUES. Today, the NASDAQ 100 is not really a tech index, but has all sorts of boring companies in it, all of which have tremendous revenues.

In 2008, the housing market was an artificial junk security, backed by the debt-repayment power of demographics, without jobs or income.

The banking system was leveraged and innovation was stalling.

In my opinion, the markets are already pricing the recession, even before it happened and even before we know the severity of it, if it does occur.

Google and Microsoft both reported earnings yesterday and they were SOLID.
Visa reported solid earnings.

Today, PayPal and Facebook, among others, will be revealing their numbers and tomorrow, the mother goose, Amazon and Apple, will be announcing theirs.

Ultimately, though, the market won’t change course, until the FED does.

On May 4th, the markets need to hear the FED say something along the lines of: “We believe inflationary expectations have reversed and that conditions have been priced into many sectors, which means we can stay nimble.”

This sort of dovish pivot will help to alleviate much of the concerns about tightening into a recession.


Best Regards,

Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!

Protect Yourself Now, By Building A Fully-Hedged Financial Fortress!


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