Traders be Traders
The doubts begin to show themselves. Is that all she wrote, they ask me? Has everything that’s been said about the national debt, deficits and the end of the dollar, been nothing but hype?
Why isn’t gold able to get to the next level and hit that all-time high; it was so close…
The answer is this: gold is pulling back, because it’s normal and natural to do so.
We should be happy that it isn’t going parabolic.
If it were, I’d be selling, but it isn’t.
In fact, the BIGGEST catalyst for gold hasn’t even begun (rate cuts).
What happened in the United States in the past decade, when the FED lowered rates to zero, caused the tech sector, which the U.S. is the absolute champion of, to flourish.
The dollar was king and everything went the dollar’s way.
Even with zero interest rates, the rush to invest in America far outweighed the negatives, but now the trend is 180 degrees the other way.
Higher interest rates make U.S. housing and tech unattractive. It makes venture capital less appealing and that is INFLATIONARY.
Why, you ask? Because it means a lot of money will NOT flow to investments.
The U.S. money supply has actually contracted at the fastest pace since the Great Depression.
We don’t think this trend will change, until the FED cuts and that, we believe, will happen in July.
Even then, we think that the money supply will not increase substantially for many years and that means that cash will have to circulate faster than before (inflation, there I say it again).
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When I spoke to a fund manager in the real estate sector yesterday, he straight told me they are waiting for distress, for motivated sellers, for those that bought in the days of zero rates and now will be forced to refinance and take big losses or bleed with negative cash flows every month.
If we look at this chart, which has NEVER been this low, we can see that EVERY TIME it reached these negative readings, a multiyear bull market in precious metals commenced.
Soon, we will see just how problematic it is to relocate our supply chains away from China and into Mexico or other countries, which don’t have enough workers to meet the demand of the American consumer.
The Baby Boomers, which were the largest demographic generation in world history, supplied a seemingly endless amount of headcount and kept wages stagnant for decades, but now, the preceding generations, are far smaller, which is pushing salaries up.
Time to acknowledge that, in order to de-globalize and to divest away from China, we will have to go through an inflationary reset.
Gold is going to consolidate now, in a few weeks and in a few months and so on, but the underlying bull market is in place.
We are very likely to see a new all-time high this year.
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