Markets Aren’t Sniper School
At sniper school, they teach the course attendees two main things: fieldcraft and marksmanship. Ask anyone there and they’ll tell you that all they really want to do is shoot and do target practice, but pulling the trigger, while an exhilarating, action-filled chore, is only the cumulative result of a major undertaking of preparation done beforehand.
Whether stationary or moving, hitting the target is like making a BUY order and acquiring a piece of a business (stock).
The real work is in the weeks and months of research that needs to be done on the business, especially if the industry it’s operating in is foreign to you. This is done with the patience and discipline of waiting for the price to be in line with what’s reasonable and in the methodical approach to accumulating an ownership position relative to the rest of your portfolio.
Even before all of that, before you begin to put the target in your scope and factor wind, temperature, humidity, ballistics, and all of the other variables, the sniper needs to get into position.
At sniper school, they teach attendees how they would need to lie on the ground soaked, hungry, and perhaps tired and weary from changing positions while they wait for the perfect shot.
They teach snipers camouflage and other fieldcraft skills they may never have to use.
I really do wish that investing courses would start with teaching would-be investors how going through market crashes like 1932, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020 feels like.
Real investors are ready for the wild crashes; they relish them. When they see charts like these on the real estate market, they smile and capitalize:
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
They understand that the Federal Reserve doesn’t get huge topics like inflation wrong so badly too often and panic into over-tightening the economy and housing sector to a screeching halt every couple of years… this is a once-in-a-generation event.
Tech has led the markets and has reached valuations that aren’t akin to the tech bubble but are fairly close.
Now, it’s time for non-tech sectors to lead, and that is extremely bullish for gold.
You can already see money leaving stocks for the first time in over a decade, and we don’t see it rotating back that quickly. Wall Street is searching for alternatives, and that is bullish for gold.
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Central banks are going to continue with their shrinkage of the balance sheet. They will not return to monetizing debt anytime soon, and that means that the incentive to own USD-denominated debt is decreasing, a critical component of the coming dollar bear market.
Again, this is extremely bullish for gold and silver.
There is a big connection between the performance of the U.S. equities (primarily the large tech firms) and the liquidity of central banks that allowed for more money to flow to these businesses, a virtuous circle that has ended:
If you’re a sniper that has been chasing quickly moving targets (bull market), they’re now moving slower and even grinding to a halt. Should you complain that the game is boring or should you celebrate that it’s easier to buy world-class equities at better valuations?
Gold looks primed.
We believe silver can post a 30%-40% return in 2023!
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