Not All Elites Vote Blue
On November 5th, which is right around the corner in just over nine months from now, the United States of America could have a new president.
How tight will this race be?
According to the latest polls, it looks like something to the order of 4M voters from eight key counties residing in swing states will determine who will be the leader of the free world for the rest of the 330M Americans and close to 9B people worldwide.
Joe Biden is not a popular president even though he has maintained one of the lowest unemployment rates of any U.S. president. This means that even though Americans have jobs, they don’t like what they’re seeing.
The average American doesn’t know much about anything.
We believe that you, by the mere fact that you’re reading these words, realize that whoever is in the White House matters for America and the world, so let’s review the most pressing issues facing whoever the leader is:
- The U.S.-led global order is dead.
After WW2, the U.S. formed alliances and global institutions in order to build trade back up and connect the world in a bond that would deter nationalistic movements from destroying each other, as was the case in Europe in the 31-year period between 1914 and 1945.
They partially succeeded but faced the Soviets that had imperial aspirations and wanted to exert power with a dictatorial regime that spread around Europe, Asia, and Latin America. By the mid-1980s, the Americans had the upper hand.
In the early 1990s, the mighty Soviet Union, which geo-strategists predicted would fall and break apart in a process lasting 30-40 years, managed to do it in less than a year in spectacular fashion.
The U.S. and its allies weren’t prepared, but they reached a point where they clearly remained the only superpower left standing.
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The problem they faced was that being the only superpower is costly and expensive, so being everywhere at the same time became a real challenge.
Here and there, other regional powers started rising that were opposed to the American-led order.
China, North Korea, Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Qatar, and others were part of this. In one of their strokes of genius, they infiltrated the West by collaborating and donating to its elite universities, non-profit organizations, and the liberal media.
Their joint powers have made American hegemony a thing of the past.
- New alliances and priorities.
Instead of the U.S. military protecting the free world from the rise of authoritarian regimes, the White House, both under Trump and Biden, looks to empower regional actors to bring prosperity to a domain under their influence.
Be it Germany and Great Britian in Europe, Australia and Japan in the Pacific, Saudi Arabia and Israel in the Middle East, or India in Asia, the U.S. thinks in terms of helping its partners militarize and exert power and dominance in their respective areas so it can primarily focus on the Chinese threat.
President Trump has a conservative approach to American foreign policy, so if he wins, what we could expect is that the United States will seek to form deals in the regions where it can do so. The Abraham Accords are a great example of this!
Next, we’ll talk about what four more years of Biden will look like…
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