Not Backing Down, Not Backing Out
and No Backup Plans
I heard Vladimir Putin’s speech. The short version of it is that the war rages on and there’s no scenario in which Russia doesn’t either win on the battlefield or at the diplomatic table of negotiation. Putin’s speech showed no signs of second-guessing the reasoning for the war or anything that would constitute a sliver of hope that aggressions will cease.
Let me recap both sides of this for you:
- Putin blames Western provocations, a puppet regime in Ukraine, and NATO moving closer to Russia’s border with the ultimate objective of isolating it
- The West blames Putin; he is a ruthless, merciless, and dangerous warlord
Before you ask which side I am on and try to convince me to switch sides, let me tell you that my personal views on this matter don’t mean much.
What is of vital importance is how this conflict affects you and what it means for the global economy and geopolitical risks for Americans, Europeans, and Russians.
Putin’s speech didn’t reveal a lot of new information, but it did prove that this is going to be a long one, perhaps even taking years to resolve if neither side (Russia or Ukraine) gets a clear advantage militarily.
From the 28 quarterly earnings calls I listened to in the past 7 days, most U.S. companies (22 of the 28) didn’t even mention Russia or Ukraine as deterring business.
What are the impacts on the U.S. and global economy, then?
Business-wise, Russia and Ukraine were some of the largest exporters in the world of commodities and agricultural products, so someone will have to pick up the slack or we’ll face energy and food shortages.
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The U.S., purposefully and deviously or unintentionally and naively, is a massive beneficiary because Europe is now buying LNG from domestic producers.
Germany, Poland, Finland, and France are all buying defense systems and weapons from U.S. companies. At the same time, the U.S. military and its budget are shrinking because these countries are taking matters into their own hands.
The risk is that American separatism, while in line with many in the U.S. who despise the role Washington assumes as the global police force, is opening the door to regional conflicts and instability, especially in the Middle East where Russia and China can disrupt the flow of oil from the region and cut America off.
As you can see above, the average American is far more cash-rich than the sentiment currently prices in.
In short, even after everything the FED has done to slow inflation, people have lots of cash on hand.
Do globalists want war? They have it…
- War on inflation
- War on American globalism
- War on silver prices
- Layoffs becoming the norm for efficiency
- War on the lower classes with relentless food and gas price increases
War it is; we’ll beat them.
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