Yuan Rising

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This past week we saw China’s central bank set the daily reference rate for spot trading at 6.7685 per dollar, the highest we have seen since July of 2005. We also saw China report that their exports hit a record over the past year.  Exports are up 38.1% showing evidence of a strong China. Imports have risen 22.7%, clearly showing healthy growth and spending from Chinese consumers. By the way, exports rose so much that they exceeded the forcast of all 29 Bloomberg News economist that were surveyed. Obviously, with exports hitting new highs this will add global pressure to allow an accelerated appreciation of the Yuan. Most are assuming this means something very gradual, but with the United States now monetizing their debt, believes that the Yuan could see much larger growth than everyone is expecting. Looking at the demographics as well as other currencies China and the Yuan are long over due for a global rebalance. It’s no surprise that a recent annual assessment of China by the IMF came to the conclusion that the Yuan is “substantially” undervalued.

For more information about the Yuan, please see our Yuan profile trend alert.

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