[su_quote cite=”John Templeton” class=”wwd-post”]”The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”[/su_quote]
Gold/Silver Thoughts On Current Prices
Dear FutureMoneyTrends.com Subscriber,
Below is an article I wrote yesterday that I wanted to send out to you now, but since I wrote it there has been a few developments. Several bullion dealers are reporting low or no inventory, others are just outright overcharging their customers. Wholesale dealers are also reporting they are out of several products including the American Eagle.
Here is a message from one of the few dealers I use when I asked him why his 100oz Canadian bars were out of stock…[su_quote cite=”Ye Xie and Michael Patterson” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/emerging-markets-crack-as-3-9-trillion-funds-unwind-currencies.html)”]”Hello Dan, there is basically a silver shortage right now. Dealers are starting to run out of products and delay the shipping times.”[/su_quote] David Smoler, DBS Coins
Here is a message from my good friend who works in the bullion industry when I asked him if there were real shortages happening.[su_quote cite=”Ye Xie and Michael Patterson” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/emerging-markets-crack-as-3-9-trillion-funds-unwind-currencies.html)”]”Across the board, sold out. Delivery delays up to 4-6 weeks, premium rising. Friday was our busiest day ever; until today. Which was much busier.”[/su_quote] Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin
Places to buy, DBScoins.com is selling silver for about $1.50 over spot if you buy 100 ounces, ALL of their prices include shipping. MilesFranklin.com includes shipping on ALL orders over $1,500 if you mention Future MoneyTrends (Yes we get a small referral fee).
Lastly BullionDirect.com is selling silver rounds for about $1.45 over spot with about $10 for shipping and handling if you pay with a wire.
If your concern is immediate delivery, then choose MilesFranklin.com, the other two I mentioned above always take 2-4 weeks even with a wire during good times, so now who knows…
4/16/13 Gold/Silver Thoughts On Current Prices
Everyone right now, at least according to CNBC, is selling precious metals. Of course I always like to point out that for every trade there is both a buyer and a seller; so for all this selling, there sure is a lot of buying coming in as well.
Markets have the tendency to burn great investments over night for no apparent reason, take a look at Apple (AAPL), AAPL is down 40% since October! I’m typing on an iMac, I use an iPhone, and this weekend my dad purchased his first smart phone which was the iPhone. AAPL had a good run, we told members to sell at around $625, anytime you see a chart going straight up, you just have to get out and lock in profits.
Remember oil in 2008?It hit a high of $147 in 2008, only to collapse down to the $30 level. I remember hearing people say that oil would never come back from this type of crash, that it was finished for a decade. Well those who bought oil at the low are up 192%, heck even those who bought at $45 are still up 94% from the ‘panic lows.’
My thoughts on gold and silver right now is to sit tight, I am buying a small amount of silver, but have not felt the need to force myself to go big yet. IF I felt a little emotion or my stomach hurt about the metals being down so much in such a short period, I would absolutely force myself to buy, but I just don’t feel it. Plus, when something gets this oversold, yes we will have a cat bounce, but it is unlikely silver rallies over $25 or gold rallies over $1,525 for some time now. So what is the rush? Plus we are so close to my ultimate buy price of $17.50 I’d like to wait untilsilver at least goes below $20, not saying that it will, but I personally would like to wait and see.
Now if I didn’t own any precious metals today, I would be inclined to start building a position here, but the fact is I already have a large position and buying at $24 or $25 makes no real difference, I would prefer to see it really crash and get down to the teens and then load up big.
As far as the miners, they have been in a bear market for 2 years and now with the metals down, the miners are really seeing a wash out. In fact, I would say the bull market for gold probably just had its back broken in 2013 which means the miners just experienced a decapitation strike. It’s going to take the gold market some time to recover from this, the psychological damage is fairly large when you think about the investing public, well with the exception of Indians and the Chinese. In a few days I will re-assess my position and possibly start buying both shares and metals if we continue to see blood in the streets. Sorry if I sound greedy, but I would just like to see a little more blood.
One thing that does make me want to buy today is the fact that this type of move is unprecedented for gold, these type of moves create generational opportunities, but as I already stated, I want to see how the next few days play out before buying. One lesson I have learned from investing is that whenever you feel rushed to do something, you almost always lose money.
Two things to think about… 1. Have the fundamentals changed? 2. Are gold and silver actually telling us something, are we facing a much larger crash ahead in other assets as well?
For differing perspectives, please watch my latest two interviews, one with Harry Dent of DentResearch.com, who is predicting Dow 3,000 and the second one with Steve Sjuggerud with StansberryResearch.com who is predictingDow 50,000.