Precious Metal Alert!
The gold and silver move down is now front page news with a death cross headline and all. The fact that this is on the front page of CNBC.com and MarketWatch.com is incredibly bullish for the metals right now. We know they are free falling right now and no one wants to try and catch a falling knife, but we do have to remind you that this is the time when big profits are made. You have to mentally overcome your own emotions, step back and look at the fundamentals for gold and silver; you have limited supply, rising costs of mining, growing demand, and an active currency war where the winner is the central bank with the weakest fiat currency. Not to mention the government that is home to the world’s reserve currency is borrowing 50 cents for every dollar it spends.
In our opinion, the fundamentals have never been better for both gold and silver. We are NOT calling a bottom here, but certainly after a move to the downside like this, everyone should consider buying this dip.
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When is the last time the media predicted a crash of anything?
On a technical level, gold has significant support at the $1,525 level that should attract buyers if we see it fall further.
Here is a related article on what the smart money is doing…
Hedge Funds Loading Up on Gold, Silver, and Mining Shares
By Tekoa Da Silva of Bull Market Thinking
While the mainstream media continues to spew out bearish news and headlines on precious metals and (especially) mining shares, SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, quietly positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments during Q4 2012.
Of great interest is the structure of those positions. They are indicating, that the firm is expecting a massive spike in both gold and silver, as well as a staggering move higher in the mining shares.
Starting out, the firm increased its holdings in gold and silver mining shares from roughly $54.9 million, to $122.2 million, a total increase of over $65 million. Companies included many of the major producers such as AngloGold, Barrick, Goldcorp, and surprisingly, included junior producers, such as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc and Timmins Gold Corp.
-The firm took an over $20 million dollar “straddle” position on the SLV ETF, which indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of silver—either up or down.
-The firm took an over $61 million dollar “straddle” position on the GLD, which similar to the SLV position, indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of gold—either up or down.
(For reference, an option “straddle” position entails buying both a call and a put option against an underlying security, for a specified date and strike price. To become profitable, the underlying security must spike up or down far enough to offset the premium cost of both the call and put options. This strategy can be thought of as “betting on volatility”)
-Lastly, the firm purchased over $36 million dollars worth of call options on various gold and silver mining companies
—indicating the firm is expecting a staggering move higher in mining shares sometime in the next two years or less.
Bottom Line: While some funds may be experiencing redemptions and forced selling of metals and mining shares, this firm is taking monstrously large positions—many of them being in call options—with the expectation of staggering moves higher in the months and years ahead.
To view the entire 13-f filing as reported by S.A.C. Capital Advisors, L.P., visit this page link at: SEC.gov